What if Brown goes to the country this autumn?

...well it's quite simple. We'd lose. Badly.

Or is it that simple? With the Lib Dems only polling, on average, 17% at the moment, we have to consider where they would lose. UK Elect 6.2 shows that with the most recent polling averages (Lab 38.3%, Con 34%, LD 17%) that the Lib Dems would lose in the following constituencies:

Carshalton and Wallington
Cheltenham
Eastleigh
Hereford and South Herefordshire
Somerton and Frome
Taunton Deane
Torbay
Westmorland and Lonsdale (Tim Collins' old seat)

However, being further behind labour than we were in 2005 means that the Tories would lose the following seats to Labour:

Croydon Central
Gravesham
Hammersmith
Harlow
Hemel Hempstead
Lancaster and Fleetwood (new seat)
Mid Derbyshire
Milton Keynes North
Preseli Pembrokeshire
Reading East
Rugby
Shipley
Sittingbourne and Sheppey
South Basildon and East Thurrock
South Thanet
The Wrekin
Wellingborough

As a result, according to this forecast, the Conservatives would be left with 204 seats - that's a net loss of 9 after the latest boundary revisions. This would be an unacceptable result for the Party, particularly after such consistently good results through 2006 and earlier in 2007.

Again, I feel it necessary to highlight quite how difficult it is for the Party to win. Let's suppose the exit poll on election night was Lab 32 Con 40 LD 19. These are the results:

Con 307 (+94) (40%)
Lab 271 (-76) (32%)
LibD 40 (-20) (19%)

(Con short by 17)

Even with an 8-point lead, we cannot form an overall majority. This is because the swing is only 5.2% from Lab to Con. With a 7% swing, the results are as follows:

Con 327 (+114) (39.2%)
Lab 236 (-111) (28.4%)
LibD 56 (-4) (22.6%) (because this was a uniform two-party swing forecast, the Lib Dems remain largely static)

Con maj 6

In this highly optimistic scenario, I have collated the seats where the Conservative incumbents enjoy the most slender majorities; i.e., these are the 'biggest wins':

Stockton South
Sutton and Cheam (from the Lib Dems)
Barrow in Furness
Dudley North
Dagenham and Rainham
Blackpool North and Cleveleys
Elmet and Rothwell
Eltham
North Cornwall (from the Lib Dems)
Tooting
Leeds North East
Carlisle

All these seats have projected majorities of under 600. Stockton South currently has a projected Labour majority of 5912. THESE ARE THE SEATS WE HAVE TO WIN.