Polls

ComRes - 41/30/17

An excellent poll at a critical time, when it looked like we were dipping below 40% and Labour was recovering. The Lib Dems are also not making very much progress.

London Mayor: Boris 44/Ken 39

This is truly excellent, and as posters on ComHome have pointed out, the London Mayoral Election result is hugely significant for the Party. I would even go as far to say that if Boris loses, it may ruin David Cameron's reputation - although electing Ken would obviously be far more calamitous for London than for the Party.

Also, Michael Portillo's television programme 'The Lady's Not for Spurning' is the best piece of political television I've seen for some time (although perhaps he needs to polish his MT impression a bit) - look out for classic Thatcher quotes like 'Take me to the battle!' at the 1976 Cambridge by-election.

Watch it on BBC iPlayer here

The Polls - LATEST

ConservativeHome, 'Will the 11% Lib Dems take this opportunity to oust Ming?'

11% would a complete unadulterated disaster for the Lib Dems but I cannot envisage them polling this badly - surely this result is just due to the media coverage attained by the two main parties?

Ming, however, does appear to be becoming a bit of a joke - his comments about ageism in politics and fixed term parliaments on QT the other day were met with rather sarcastically enthusiastic applause.

For us Tories, we can't really afford for the Lib Dems to do this badly (amusing though it is) because it makes it easier for Labour to retain an overall majority and means that we must gain even more seats to form a government.

As for the alternatives, Huhne only has a projected majority of 547 in Eastleigh and surely would be a foolish choice for leader if the Tories were to 'Ashcroft' him out of his seat at the next election. The Lib Dems need to make a sustainable choice as leader, which is why electing MC was such utter folly.

Enough of the Lib Dems though - 41% is excellent. We need to sustain this performance and bash Labour down to the low to mid-thirties. This is the only way we can WIN.

Three polls come along at once

Some projections using UK Elect:

Lab 40 Con 36 LD 13 gives:

Lab 364
Con 247
LD 5
LAB MAJ 80

Lab 39 Con 36 LD 15 gives:

Lab 355
Con 249
LD 12
LAB MAJ 62

Lab 39 Con 38 LD 16 gives:

Lab 341
Con 264
LD 12
LAB MAJ 34

Some points to consider:
-The Lib Dems won't do nearly as badly as this!
-Labour must poll a lower percentage if they're going to be deprived of their overall majority.
-I considered immediately after Conference that a 1% defecit was my minimum acceptable result in a post-Conference poll - Brown would look silly to go to the country and get a majority of only 34. Majorities of 62 or 80, however, would be OK.

As I said on conservativehome.com, 'Of course, Lib Dems won't lose as many seats as this unless there's complete meltdown. The problem is, we can't afford for the Lib Dems to do too badly, because it makes it easier for Labour to get an overall majority. I still think that Brown will go to the country next week. He would look extremely foolish not to after allowing such a collosal build-up and the bias in FPTP allows for the Conservatives to do well without depriving Labour of their overall majority.'

UPDATE:

The Guardian seem to have updated the ICM findings to Lab 38 Con 38 LD 16:

Lab 332
Con 269
LD 14
LAB MAJ 16

Some people are commenting on ukpollingreport.co.uk that the Tories are doing 'even better' in marginals and some outstanding results here might tip the balance away from Brown. Good news!