Tuesday, October 16, 2007

'Who will run?' - continued

The Today Programme is suggested that it is highly likely that there will be a female candidate - let's consider who that might be:

Sarah Teather
Lynne Featherstone
Susan Kramer
Julia Goldsworthy

Other male candidates have been mentioned:

Steve Webb
David Laws

Monday, October 15, 2007

Who will run?

Malcolm Bruce is being interviewed on BBC News 24. He mentions four Lib Dem MPs as 'would make good leaders'. They are:

David Laws
Ed Davey
Nick Clegg
Chris Huhne

Would Laws and/or Davey stand? Would there be a risk of the Orange Book vote being split?


Ming Campbell has resigned. Did he go or was he pushed? You decide.

Coming up:

1) Who will run?

2) Is this bad news for the Tories?

3) Is it bad news for Gordon?

Sunday, October 07, 2007

The Polls - LATEST

ConservativeHome, 'Will the 11% Lib Dems take this opportunity to oust Ming?'

11% would a complete unadulterated disaster for the Lib Dems but I cannot envisage them polling this badly - surely this result is just due to the media coverage attained by the two main parties?

Ming, however, does appear to be becoming a bit of a joke - his comments about ageism in politics and fixed term parliaments on QT the other day were met with rather sarcastically enthusiastic applause.

For us Tories, we can't really afford for the Lib Dems to do this badly (amusing though it is) because it makes it easier for Labour to retain an overall majority and means that we must gain even more seats to form a government.

As for the alternatives, Huhne only has a projected majority of 547 in Eastleigh and surely would be a foolish choice for leader if the Tories were to 'Ashcroft' him out of his seat at the next election. The Lib Dems need to make a sustainable choice as leader, which is why electing MC was such utter folly.

Enough of the Lib Dems though - 41% is excellent. We need to sustain this performance and bash Labour down to the low to mid-thirties. This is the only way we can WIN.

Thursday, October 04, 2007

Three polls come along at once

Some projections using UK Elect:

Lab 40 Con 36 LD 13 gives:

Lab 364
Con 247
LD 5

Lab 39 Con 36 LD 15 gives:

Lab 355
Con 249
LD 12

Lab 39 Con 38 LD 16 gives:

Lab 341
Con 264
LD 12

Some points to consider:
-The Lib Dems won't do nearly as badly as this!
-Labour must poll a lower percentage if they're going to be deprived of their overall majority.
-I considered immediately after Conference that a 1% defecit was my minimum acceptable result in a post-Conference poll - Brown would look silly to go to the country and get a majority of only 34. Majorities of 62 or 80, however, would be OK.

As I said on conservativehome.com, 'Of course, Lib Dems won't lose as many seats as this unless there's complete meltdown. The problem is, we can't afford for the Lib Dems to do too badly, because it makes it easier for Labour to get an overall majority. I still think that Brown will go to the country next week. He would look extremely foolish not to after allowing such a collosal build-up and the bias in FPTP allows for the Conservatives to do well without depriving Labour of their overall majority.'


The Guardian seem to have updated the ICM findings to Lab 38 Con 38 LD 16:

Lab 332
Con 269
LD 14

Some people are commenting on ukpollingreport.co.uk that the Tories are doing 'even better' in marginals and some outstanding results here might tip the balance away from Brown. Good news!

Tuesday, October 02, 2007


I was only 11 years old when we lost the 1997 General Election. We have indulged in a sustained period of self-disgust and factionalism and now, I believe, and more specifically today, we have emerged from this difficult phase.

This has been the most positive and invigorating Conference I have ever seen. The speeches have been passionate - the best of all given today by Iain Duncan Smith. Whatever you may believe about his capability to lead our Party, his work at the Centre for Social Justice has been inspirational and has given us the boost we need in convincing the public of the effectiveness of our social policy.

At the moment, I'm watching Bob Ainsworth being savaged by a hungry Paxman. It's compelling.