ICM: Labour to lose 131 seats

More bad news for Gordon, as ICM will reveal in the News of the World tomorrow that the Tories are 8 points ahead in the 145 most marginal seats, 40-32%. That's a swing of 9% in marginals since the 2005 election - that's tangible progress.

From ConHome:

'Very interesting figures.

After some fun on UK Elect, I managed to calculate an outcome for a general election which would mirror these figures from ICM:

Con 41.0 (+144)
Lab 29.0 (-129)
LD 19.5 (-22)

Con Maj 66

I still think that unless things become apocalyptic, Labour are unlikely to do this badly - but in the current climate, who knows?

I wonder what ICM will come up with later on this evening....'

There is a national ICM poll due later on. I wonder if my figures will come close...

Zimbabwe Recount

Some promising news emerging from Zimbabwe this morning. It appears that Robert Mugabe's Zanu-PF party have lost in their bid to win recounted constituency votes in the parliamentary elections.

If so, this shows that even if there has been fiddling, it has not succeeded, and the ZEC has remained supreme. This is despite widespread violence against white farmers and opposition activists. Their tenacity must be applauded. Mugabe must be fought every inch of the way by the MDC using the democratic tools at their disposal. The fact that President Mugabe was apparently willing to strike a deal earlier on means that there is, surely, a chance that he may choose to do so again, if he feels that the game is up.

We still, however, await the results of the presidential election.

Humph

Jazz musician and I'm Sorry I Haven't A Clue chairman Humphrey Lyttelton has died at the age of 86. He had a remarkable life as one of the most prominent British trad jazz musicians and a broadcaster.

He had presented ISIHAC since 1972, and had recently completed its fiftieth series. A truly irreplaceable man, he will be sorely missed by millions of British people whom he made laugh uncontrollably for so many years, myself included. His deadpan delivery and superb skill with words made him a perfect man for the role and a broadcasting icon.

26% and the economy

From CentreRight.com:

'The electorate is finally waking up to the extent of Brown's public sector binge. He assumed that the good times were going to go on forever. Even now, they still boast about low inflation, interest rates and unemployment. The fact remains that RPI inflation is running at around 4%, interest rate cuts are not being passed on (a friend of mine recently secured a variable rate of 6.7%); unemployment figures exclude thousands claiming bloated and undeserved benefits and they include many unnecessary appointments to an enormous public sector bureaucracy.

It is still unclear how severe any recession might be, but I would personally expect growth under 1% for 2008Q4 and of between 0% and -0.5% in 2009 Q1&2. House prices may fall 10-15% this year. RPI inflation may increase to 5% and beyond, leading to pressure for interest rate rises. If banks' liquidity problems are not solved soon, inflation-curbing interest rate rises could lead to severe difficulties for homeowners.

26% is such an awful poll rating for Labour, I cannot really see it going much lower. The Conservative vote, however, should gradually increase. We should set ourselves a target of not polling lower than 45% by conference season. Osborne v Darling polls must also improve. I still have my doubts about Osborne's ability to attack the government's record, whilst providing a coherent policy alternative. If things deteriorate rapidly, we must be prepared for government by the beginning of next year.'

18% - from ConHome

'Utterly and almost unspeakably stunning news.

With such enormous defecits, Labour must realize that the only way to recover is to get rid of Brown. From a Conservative perspective, it's essential that he stays put for as long as possible. The best outcome, of course, would be a vote of no confidence - but Labour know that they couldn't possibly win a general election at the moment.

Note that this result for Labour is even worse than their paltry 27.6% they won in 1983. UK Elect handsomely predicts:

Con 397
Lab 191
LD 31

MAJ 146

It is ESSENTIAL that we gain Crewe and Nantwich. This poll represents a swing of about 11.5% since the 2005 GE and we only need 7.5% in C&N.'

18%

Oh my. Eighteen whole percentage points ahead.

Con 44
Lab 26 (TWENTY-SIX)
LD 17

UKElect

Con 397
Lab 191
LD 31

MAJ 146

Incredible stuff. The details will hopefully emerge later this evening. It's worth bearing in mind that even in 1983, Labour didn't poll as low as this. This is desperate news for Brown, and the u-turn is still not quite complete. Newsnight this evening is compulsory viewing. Watch the mayoral debate later.

Row defused?

Oh no. Has Brown mucked up the u-turn?

Frank Field is saying this morning that Yvette Cooper was 'badly briefed' for last night's Newsnight - she appeared very unsure as to whether or not the whole compensation package for the abolition of the 10p rate will be backdated to the beginning of the tax year. George Osborne was quick to pick up on this, accusing Gordon Brown's u-turn of 'not being what it seems'. Paxman's mock face of incredulity was beginning to look genuine.

Darling has to answer Treasury Questions in the Commons today, so he clearly needs to make a few things clear. If he can't, there is still plenty of time to put down a further amendment if anyone wants to....