Trouble on the Way

After today's contradicting headlines that Angela Smith MP (Sheffield Hillsborough) 'intended' to resign and then decided not to after a call to Gordon, we should be able to look forward to some fractious weeks ahead for the Brown administration.

42 days' detention still looks unwinnable - we can look forward to marvellous speeches from all sides of the House; hopefully David Winnick (Walsall North) can match his articulate and passionate speech during the 90 days' detention debate a couple of years ago.

The scenarios are these: if the government loses the vote, Brown's authority and judgement will be damaged further. Jacqui Smith should have to resign - although she probably won't, otherwise a PM would be into our fifth home secretary in only 4 years. If, unlikely though it is, they win the vote, our attention may be drawn to Jack Straw's position in the cabinet. He is widely rumoured to have doubts about the proposals. His resignation would be an almighty hammerblow to the government, and the Prime Minister, whose leadership campaign he ran. It would probably be comparable to the resignation of Geoffrey Howe or Nigel Lawson. A Jacqui Smith resignation would be embarrassing, but by no means fatal.

Abolition of 10p starting rate anyone?

The hideous smugness on Gord's face when he announced he was cutting the 22p tax band to 20p belies the attitude of this government - pull a rabbit out of the hat, make a few headlines, and to hell with the affect of it. It is people like me who are single, young, and earning a lowish wage who will be affected by this proposal. It is extraordinary that Labour MPs have taken so long to work out that this was never a good idea. There is real anger on the doorstep about this. It appears that Gordon is taking from the poor to give to the middle - and tax credit bonunses are not good enough. Labour cannot bring itself to give the people the tax break they deserve. They prefer to condemn them to complicated and unneccesary bureaucracy, which, hopefully, will deter them sufficiently from getting the discounts they rightly deserve.

The local government elections on May 1st will probably not be pleasant for Labour either. The Tories need to start winning properly in the north of England - Bury is a MUST this time. It's going to be difficult to break through in Yorkshire because of the number of indepedents, but we must at least make large inroads. Hopefully there will be more Conservatives in Salford joining Iain Lindley and the team. Surely the abolition of the 10p rate will play well for us here.

The mayoral election, however, is far more important. I have always been of the opinion that, if Boris loses, it is a major blow for David Cameron - he put his faith in Boris, not only to perform competently and prove his political worth, but also to win. He has to win. It appears that Ken is staging a fightback, so Conservatives must under no circumstances become complacent. Campaigning must be vigorous and relentless. London deserves so much better than an arrogant socialist cast-off like Ken Livingstone.

As for the polls, things are looking very promising. YouGov's 16 point lead would give us a majority of about 120 (44/28/17) but this needs to be backed up by other companies. I am reluctant to treat Mori's results seriously anymore, as they've looked increasing volatile as the Conservatives have recovered, with that imfamous 10% swing in 1 month 2 years ago. Populus always give better results for Labour, but it is crucial that we sustain a rating of over 40% with them if we are to be sure of success. ICM are yielding good results at the moment, and are pretty much in line with YouGov. It is looking increasingly as if the Conservatives are more likely to not only be the largest party in a post-2010 parliament, but to have a convincing and workable overall majority.

David Cameron is not the Conservatives' Neil Kinnock. It won't be a repeat of the 1992 election.